Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars

All Boston Bruins predictions · All Dallas Stars predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Dallas Stars to win
Model confidence 59.7%
Books consensus 59.7%
Result Dallas Stars won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston BruinsDallas Stars
BetMGM +140 -165
BetRivers +140 -167
DraftKings +142 -170
ESPN BET +135 -155
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +134 -162
Hard Rock Bet +130 -170
Novig +147 -150
Caesars +142 -170

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Stars −1.5
priced 36.9% to cover · 7 books
Boston Bruins covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 51.1% over · 8 books
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book BruinsStars
BetMGM +1.5 -185 −1.5 +154
BetRivers +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
DraftKings +1.5 -192 −1.5 +160
ESPN BET +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
Fanatics +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
FanDuel +1.5 -188 −1.5 +152
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
BetRivers 5.5 -122 5.5 -103
DraftKings 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
ESPN BET 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Fanatics 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
FanDuel 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 5.5 -117 5.5 -106

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston BruinsDallas Stars
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.3% 59.7%
Best book price incl. vig 40.5% 60.0%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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