Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars

All Winnipeg Jets predictions · All Dallas Stars predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Dallas Stars to win
Model confidence 63.8%
Books consensus 63.8%
Result Dallas Stars won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Winnipeg JetsDallas Stars
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +170 -205
DraftKings +164 -198
ESPN BET +165 -195
Fanatics +165 -200
FanDuel +164 -200
Hard Rock Bet +155 -200
Novig +174 -178
Caesars +172 -209

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Stars −1.5
priced 40.6% to cover · 7 books
Winnipeg Jets covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 49.2% over · 8 books
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book JetsStars
BetMGM +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
BetRivers +1.5 -167 −1.5 +133
DraftKings +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
ESPN BET +1.5 -165 −1.5 +140
Fanatics +1.5 -165 −1.5 +135
FanDuel +1.5 -172 −1.5 +140
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -185 −1.5 +140
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
BetRivers 5.5 -112 5.5 -112
DraftKings 5.5 -108 5.5 -112
ESPN BET 5.5 -105 5.5 -115
Fanatics 5.5 -105 5.5 -115
FanDuel 5.5 -108 5.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 +100 5.5 -120
Caesars 5.5 -107 5.5 -118

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Winnipeg JetsDallas Stars
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.2% 63.8%
Best book price incl. vig 36.5% 64.0%
Kalshi contract price 35.9% 64.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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