Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees

MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 7:20 PM

The model's call

Los Angeles Dodgers to win

Model confidence 52.2%

Books consensus 52.2%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Los Angeles Dodgers	New York Yankees
DraftKings	-120	+100
FanDuel	-116	-102
Hard Rock Bet	-120	+100
Caesars	-120	+100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Los Angeles Dodgers	New York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	52.2%	47.8%
Best book price incl. vig	53.7%	50.0%
Kalshi contract price	52.5%	48.5%
Polymarket contract price	52.5%	47.5%
Markets average	52.5%	48.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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