Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche
All Tampa Bay Lightning predictions · All Colorado Avalanche predictions
NHL · Friday, October 23, 2026 · 9:09 PM · Final: 3-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Tampa Bay Lightning | Colorado Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | +104 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -122 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -120 |
| Novig | +108 | -113 |
| Caesars | +108 | -127 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Lightning | Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -235 | −1.5 +195 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -265 | −1.5 +200 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -238 | −1.5 +195 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -260 | −1.5 +210 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -240 | −1.5 +190 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -245 | −1.5 +194 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -300 | −1.5 +200 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -124 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -102 | 6.5 -118 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -108 | 6.5 -118 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Tampa Bay Lightning | Colorado Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.1% | 53.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.