Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers

All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 8:00 PM · Final: 4-5

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay RaysMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM -102 -118
BetRivers +100 -120
DraftKings +104 -116
ESPN BET +104 -118
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +100 -114
Hard Rock Bet +100 -120
Novig +108 -111
Caesars +102 -120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rays −1.5
priced 34.2% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Brewers −1.5
Milwaukee Brewers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (9 scored)
Spread by book RaysBrewers
BetMGM +1.5 -235 −1.5 +175
BetRivers −1.5 +175 +1.5 -220
DraftKings −1.5 +180 +1.5 -221
ESPN BET −1.5 +180 +1.5 -235
Fanatics −1.5 +180 +1.5 -225
FanDuel −1.5 +176 +1.5 -215
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +180 +1.5 -220
Caesars −1.5 +188 +1.5 -225
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
BetRivers 6.5 -112 6.5 -109
DraftKings 6.5 -108 6.5 -111
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -112 6.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Caesars 6.5 -113 6.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.8% 52.2%
Best book price incl. vig 48.1% 52.6%
Kalshi contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 47.5% 52.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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