Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Islanders at Dallas Stars

All New York Islanders predictions · All Dallas Stars predictions

NHL · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 6:10 PM · Final: 3-6

The model's call
Dallas Stars to win
Model confidence 61.9%
Books consensus 61.9%
Result Dallas Stars won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York IslandersDallas Stars
BetMGM +154 -185
BetRivers +163 -200
DraftKings +154 -185
ESPN BET +150 -175
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +150 -182
Hard Rock Bet +145 -190
Novig +167 -170
Caesars +150 -185

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Stars −1.5
priced 39.0% to cover · 7 books
Dallas Stars covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 44.8% over · 8 books
Over 5.5 (9 scored)
Spread by book IslandersStars
BetMGM +1.5 -170 −1.5 +140
BetRivers +1.5 -180 −1.5 +143
DraftKings +1.5 -175 −1.5 +145
ESPN BET +1.5 -190 −1.5 +160
Fanatics +1.5 -180 −1.5 +145
FanDuel +1.5 -178 −1.5 +144
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -185 −1.5 +140
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 +110 5.5 -130
BetRivers 5.5 +112 5.5 -139
DraftKings 5.5 +114 5.5 -135
ESPN BET 5.5 +120 5.5 -145
Fanatics 5.5 +110 5.5 -135
FanDuel 5.5 +104 5.5 -128
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 +115 5.5 -145
Caesars 5.5 +120 5.5 -160

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York IslandersDallas Stars
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.1% 61.9%
Best book price incl. vig 37.5% 63.0%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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