Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions

MLB · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8:10 PM · Final: 10-1

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 52.0%
Books consensus 52.0%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Milwaukee BrewersTampa Bay Rays
BetMGM -102 -118
BetRivers +104 -124
DraftKings +100 -112
ESPN BET -105 -111
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel +102 -116
Hard Rock Bet +100 -120
Novig +108 -111
Caesars +100 -120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Brewers −1.5
priced 35.3% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Milwaukee Brewers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Over 7 (11 scored)
Spread by book BrewersRays
BetMGM −1.5 +170 +1.5 -210
BetRivers +1 -152 −1 +125
DraftKings −1.5 +167 +1.5 -204
ESPN BET −1.5 +165 +1.5 -200
Fanatics −1.5 +170 +1.5 -215
FanDuel −1.5 +168 +1.5 -205
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +170 +1.5 -210
Caesars −1.5 +174 +1.5 -209
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7 -110 7 -110
BetRivers 7 -109 7 -110
DraftKings 7 -109 7 -110
ESPN BET 7.5 +115 7.5 -135
Fanatics 7 -110 7 -110
FanDuel 7.5 +112 7.5 -138
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +115 7.5 -135
Caesars 7 -110 7 -108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersTampa Bay Rays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.0% 52.0%
Best book price incl. vig 48.1% 52.6%
Kalshi contract price 48.0% 52.0%
Polymarket contract price 48.5% 51.5%
Markets average 48.2% 51.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record