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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 7:08 PM

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 58.3%
Books consensus 58.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays
BetMGM +125 -155
BetRivers +132 -155
DraftKings +129 -156
ESPN BET +130 -150
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +130 -154
Hard Rock Bet +130 -155
Caesars +130 -155

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.7% 58.3%
Best book price incl. vig 43.1% 60.0%
Kalshi contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Polymarket contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Markets average 41.0% 59.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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