Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
All Dallas Mavericks predictions · All Miami Heat predictions
NBA · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 113-109
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +225 | -285 |
| BetRivers | +220 | -278 |
| DraftKings | +220 | -270 |
| ESPN BET | +220 | -270 |
| Fanatics | +220 | -275 |
| FanDuel | +215 | -260 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +225 | -275 |
| Novig | +239 | -245 |
| Caesars | +222 | -278 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mavericks | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | −7.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -112 | −7.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -110 | −7.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | +7.5 -110 | −7.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | −7.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | −7.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 +100 | −7.5 -120 |
| Caesars | +6.5 +100 | −6.5 -120 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 239.5 -115 | 239.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 240.5 -112 | 240.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | 240.5 -108 | 240.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 240.5 -110 | 240.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 240.5 -110 | 240.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 240.5 -105 | 240.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 240.5 -110 | 240.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 240.5 -110 | 240.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 29.8% | 70.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 29.5% | 71.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 28.5% | 71.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.