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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 7:41 PM

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 65.2%
Books consensus 65.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book New York MetsMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +180 -220
BetRivers +175 -210
DraftKings +178 -219
ESPN BET +175 -210
Fanatics +175 -215
FanDuel +172 -205
Hard Rock Bet +175 -210
Caesars +180 -220

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue New York MetsMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.8% 65.2%
Best book price incl. vig 35.7% 67.2%
Kalshi contract price 33.5% 66.5%
Polymarket contract price 34.5% 65.5%
Markets average 34.0% 66.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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