Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars

All New Jersey Devils predictions · All Dallas Stars predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 5-1

The model's call
Dallas Stars to win
Model confidence 51.7%
Books consensus 51.7%
Result New Jersey Devils won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New Jersey DevilsDallas Stars
BetMGM -105 -115
BetRivers +102 -121
DraftKings -102 -118
ESPN BET -105 -115
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel -102 -118
Hard Rock Bet -110 -120
Novig +111 -113
Caesars -102 -117

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Stars −1.5
priced 30.2% to cover · 7 books
New Jersey Devils covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 50.8% over · 8 books
Over 5.5 (6 scored)
Spread by book DevilsStars
BetMGM +1.5 -275 −1.5 +220
BetRivers +1.5 -278 −1.5 +215
DraftKings +1.5 -265 −1.5 +215
ESPN BET +1.5 -325 −1.5 +220
Fanatics +1.5 -270 −1.5 +210
FanDuel +1.5 -260 −1.5 +205
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -325 −1.5 +210
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
BetRivers 5.5 -122 5.5 -103
DraftKings 5.5 -112 5.5 -108
ESPN BET 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Fanatics 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
FanDuel 5.5 -114 5.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Caesars 5.5 -115 5.5 -108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New Jersey DevilsDallas Stars
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.3% 51.7%
Best book price incl. vig 47.4% 53.1%
Kalshi contract price 46.5% 53.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record