Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
All Miami Heat predictions · All Atlanta Hawks predictions
NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 7:12 PM · Final: 129-117
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +110 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +120 | -142 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -140 |
| Novig | +133 | -135 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Heat | Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | −2.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -104 | −1.5 -117 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | −2.5 -115 |
| ESPN BET | +2.5 -105 | −2.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | −2.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | −2.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -115 | −2.5 -105 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -105 | −2.5 -115 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 243.5 -110 | 243.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 243.5 -113 | 243.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | 243.5 -112 | 243.5 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 243.5 -110 | 243.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 243.5 -110 | 243.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 242.5 -115 | 242.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 243.5 -110 | 243.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 243.5 -110 | 243.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 42.9% | 56.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.