Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs
MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 8:35 PM · Final: 8-6
The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result Detroit Tigers won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Detroit Tigers | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 49.0% | 51.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.