Every game called. Every call graded. In public.

Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs

MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 8:06 PM

The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Detroit TigersChicago Cubs
BetMGM -105 -115
BetRivers -104 -114
DraftKings -105 -114
ESPN BET -105 -115
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel -104 -112
Hard Rock Bet -105 -115
Caesars -105 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Detroit TigersChicago Cubs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.9% 51.1%
Best book price incl. vig 51.0% 52.8%
Kalshi contract price 49.5% 51.5%
Polymarket contract price 48.5% 51.5%
Markets average 49.0% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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