Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Montréal Canadiens at Dallas Stars

All Montréal Canadiens predictions · All Dallas Stars predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 5-2

The model's call
Dallas Stars to win
Model confidence 61.6%
Books consensus 61.6%
Result Montréal Canadiens won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Montréal CanadiensDallas Stars
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +150 -180
DraftKings +145 -175
ESPN BET +140 -165
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +155 -188
Hard Rock Bet +135 -175
Novig +163 -167
Caesars +150 -180

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Stars −1.5
priced 39.1% to cover · 7 books
Montréal Canadiens covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 54.6% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Over 5.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book CanadiensStars
BetMGM +1.5 -175 −1.5 +145
BetRivers +1.5 -180 −1.5 +143
DraftKings +1.5 -175 −1.5 +145
ESPN BET +1.5 -180 −1.5 +150
Fanatics +1.5 -180 −1.5 +145
FanDuel +1.5 -170 −1.5 +134
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -185 −1.5 +140
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -105 6 -115
BetRivers 5.5 -129 5.5 +104
DraftKings 5.5 -135 5.5 +114
ESPN BET 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 5.5 -134 5.5 +110
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
Caesars 6 -110 6 -112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Montréal CanadiensDallas Stars
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.4% 61.6%
Best book price incl. vig 38.0% 62.3%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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