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Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies

MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 8:41 PM

The model's call
Washington Nationals to win
Model confidence 53.3%
Books consensus 53.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Washington NationalsColorado Rockies
BetMGM -130 +105
BetRivers -122 +105
DraftKings -131 +109
ESPN BET -125 +105
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -124 +106
Hard Rock Bet -125 +105
Caesars -130 +110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Washington NationalsColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.3% 46.7%
Best book price incl. vig 55.0% 47.6%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Polymarket contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Markets average 53.5% 46.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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