Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators

All Tampa Bay Lightning predictions · All Nashville Predators predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 2:10 PM

The model's call
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Tampa Bay LightningNashville Predators
BetMGM -180 +145
BetRivers -157 +132
DraftKings -170 +142
Fanatics -175 +145
FanDuel -182 +150
Novig -156 +153
Caesars -173 +146

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Lightning −1.5
priced 39.8% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 45.3% over · 4 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book LightningPredators
BetMGM −1.5 +135 +1.5 -160
BetRivers −1.5 +155 +1.5 -200
DraftKings −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
Fanatics −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
FanDuel −1.5 +134 +1.5 -164
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 6.5 +110 6.5 -136
DraftKings 6.5 +114 6.5 -135
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Caesars 6 -115 6 -107

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Tampa Bay LightningNashville Predators
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.9% 39.1%
Best book price incl. vig 60.9% 39.5%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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