Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks

All Toronto Maple Leafs predictions · All Vancouver Canucks predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
Model confidence 59.3%
Books consensus 59.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Toronto Maple LeafsVancouver Canucks
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -159 +135
DraftKings -162 +136
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -166 +138
Novig -150 +141
Caesars -162 +136

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Maple Leafs −1.5
priced 38.3% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 53.2% over · 6 books
Spread by book Maple LeafsCanucks
BetMGM −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
BetRivers −1.5 +148 +1.5 -186
DraftKings −1.5 +154 +1.5 -185
Fanatics −1.5 +150 +1.5 -185
FanDuel −1.5 +148 +1.5 -184
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -130 6.5 +105
BetRivers 6.5 -124 6.5 +100
DraftKings 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
Fanatics 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
FanDuel 6.5 -130 6.5 +106
Caesars 6.5 -125 6.5 +102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Toronto Maple LeafsVancouver Canucks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.3% 40.7%
Best book price incl. vig 60.0% 41.5%
Kalshi contract price 58.5% 41.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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