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Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies

MLB · Tuesday, July 21, 2026 · 8:41 PM

The model's call
Colorado Rockies to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Washington NationalsColorado Rockies
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -103 -117
DraftKings -106 -114
ESPN BET -105 -115
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel -102 -116
Hard Rock Bet -105 -115
Caesars -105 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Washington NationalsColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.9% 51.1%
Best book price incl. vig 50.5% 52.4%
Kalshi contract price 49.5% 50.5%
Polymarket contract price 49.5% 50.5%
Markets average 49.5% 50.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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