Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, July 21, 2026 · 8:06 PM

The model's call

Detroit Tigers to win

Model confidence 50.0%

Books consensus 50.0%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Detroit Tigers	Chicago Cubs
BetRivers	-110	-108
ESPN BET	+100	-120
Fanatics	-105	-115
FanDuel	-108	-108
Hard Rock Bet	-110	-110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Detroit Tigers	Chicago Cubs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	50.0%	50.0%
Best book price incl. vig	50.0%	51.9%
Kalshi contract price	48.5%	50.5%
Polymarket contract price	48.5%	51.5%
Markets average	48.5%	51.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Back to today's board · The full record