Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers

All Miami Heat predictions · All Los Angeles Lakers predictions

NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 10:10 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Lakers to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Miami HeatLos Angeles Lakers
BetMGM +110 -135
BetRivers +102 -122
DraftKings +110 -130
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +114 -134
Hard Rock Bet +110 -135
Novig +120 -122
Caesars +110 -130

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Lakers −2.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
Total
O/U 237.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book HeatLakers
BetMGM +2.5 -115 −2.5 -105
BetRivers +1.5 -112 −1.5 -109
DraftKings +2.5 -118 −2.5 -102
ESPN BET +2.5 -120 −2.5 +100
Fanatics +2 -110 −2 -110
FanDuel +2.5 -115 −2.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet +2.5 -115 −2.5 -105
Caesars +2 -110 −2 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
BetRivers 237.5 -113 237.5 -109
DraftKings 237.5 -112 237.5 -108
ESPN BET 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Fanatics 238 -110 238 -110
FanDuel 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Caesars 237.5 -110 237.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Miami HeatLos Angeles Lakers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.7% 54.3%
Best book price incl. vig 45.5% 55.0%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 54.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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