Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals

All Dallas Stars predictions · All Washington Capitals predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Dallas Stars to win
Model confidence 50.0%
Books consensus 50.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Dallas StarsWashington Capitals
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -107 -112
DraftKings -108 -112
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -110 -110
Novig -104 -104
Caesars -107 -110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Capitals −1.5
priced 30.7% to cover · 6 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 52.2% over · 6 books
Spread by book StarsCapitals
BetMGM +1.5 -275 −1.5 +220
BetRivers +1.5 -305 −1.5 +235
DraftKings +1.5 -258 −1.5 +210
Fanatics +1.5 -270 −1.5 +210
FanDuel +1.5 -265 −1.5 +210
Caesars +1.5 -265 −1.5 +210
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
BetRivers 5.5 -122 5.5 -103
DraftKings 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
Fanatics 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
FanDuel 5.5 -120 5.5 -102
Caesars 5.5 -124 5.5 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Dallas StarsWashington Capitals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.0% 50.0%
Best book price incl. vig 51.0% 51.0%
Kalshi contract price 49.5% 50.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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