Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning

All Detroit Red Wings predictions · All Tampa Bay Lightning predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Model confidence 70.5%
Books consensus 70.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Detroit Red WingsTampa Bay Lightning
BetMGM +230 -285
BetRivers +220 -275
DraftKings +225 -278
Fanatics +220 -275
FanDuel +230 -285
Novig +217 -270
Caesars +225 -280

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Lightning −1.5
priced 51.2% to cover · 6 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 45.7% over · 5 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book Red WingsLightning
BetMGM +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
BetRivers +1.5 -120 −1.5 -104
DraftKings +1.5 -102 −1.5 -118
Fanatics +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
FanDuel +1.5 -102 −1.5 -120
Caesars +1.5 -103 −1.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 6.5 +102 6.5 -127
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Caesars 6.5 +108 6.5 -132

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Detroit Red WingsTampa Bay Lightning
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 29.5% 70.5%
Best book price incl. vig 30.3% 73.0%
Kalshi contract price 30.5% 69.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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