Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs

All Utah Mammoth predictions · All Toronto Maple Leafs predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Utah Mammoth to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Utah MammothToronto Maple Leafs
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -129 +108
DraftKings -130 +110
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -137 +114
Novig -130 +122
Caesars -130 +110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Mammoth −1.5
priced 35.4% to cover · 6 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 52.2% over · 6 books
Spread by book MammothMaple Leafs
BetMGM −1.5 +170 +1.5 -210
BetRivers −1.5 +185 +1.5 -235
DraftKings −1.5 +170 +1.5 -205
Fanatics −1.5 +165 +1.5 -205
FanDuel −1.5 +160 +1.5 -200
Caesars −1.5 +172 +1.5 -205
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
BetRivers 6.5 -124 6.5 +100
DraftKings 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
Fanatics 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
FanDuel 6.5 -122 6.5 +100
Caesars 6.5 -118 6.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Utah MammothToronto Maple Leafs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.3% 45.7%
Best book price incl. vig 56.3% 45.0%
Kalshi contract price 55.0% 45.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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