Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians

MLB · Tuesday, July 21, 2026 · 6:41 PM

The model's call

Cleveland Guardians to win

Model confidence 57.3%

Books consensus 57.3%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians
BetRivers	+128	-152
ESPN BET	+125	-145
Fanatics	+120	-145
FanDuel	+126	-148

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	42.7%	57.3%
Best book price incl. vig	43.9%	59.2%
Kalshi contract price	42.5%	57.5%
Polymarket contract price	43.5%	56.5%
Markets average	43.0%	57.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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