Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers

All Miami Heat predictions · All Los Angeles Clippers predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 10:40 PM

The model's call
Miami Heat to win
Model confidence 63.6%
Books consensus 63.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Miami HeatLos Angeles Clippers
BetMGM -200 +165
BetRivers -200 +160
DraftKings -196 +164
ESPN BET -195 +165
Fanatics -200 +165
FanDuel -194 +162
Hard Rock Bet -190 +160
Novig -186 +174
Caesars -195 +162

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Heat −4.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 233.5
priced 51.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Spread by book HeatClippers
BetMGM −4.5 -110 +4.5 -110
BetRivers −4.5 -115 +4.5 -106
DraftKings −4.5 -110 +4.5 -110
ESPN BET −4.5 -110 +4.5 -110
Fanatics −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
FanDuel −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet −4.5 -110 +4.5 -110
Caesars −4.5 -110 +4.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 234.5 -105 234.5 -115
BetRivers 234.5 -107 234.5 -114
DraftKings 233.5 -114 233.5 -106
ESPN BET 233.5 -115 233.5 -105
Fanatics 234 -110 234 -110
FanDuel 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 233.5 -115 233.5 -105
Caesars 234.5 -105 234.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Miami HeatLos Angeles Clippers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 63.6% 36.4%
Best book price incl. vig 65.0% 36.5%
Kalshi contract price 65.7% 34.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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