Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning

All Chicago Blackhawks predictions · All Tampa Bay Lightning predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Model confidence 75.5%
Books consensus 75.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Chicago BlackhawksTampa Bay Lightning
BetRivers +290 -360
DraftKings +300 -380
Fanatics +290 -375
FanDuel +285 -360
Caesars +290 -380

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Lightning −1.5
priced 56.4% to cover · 4 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 47.3% over · 5 books
Spread by book BlackhawksLightning
BetRivers +1.5 +108 −1.5 -134
DraftKings +1.5 +120 −1.5 -142
Fanatics +2.5 -135 −2.5 +110
FanDuel +1.5 +122 −1.5 -150
Caesars +1.5 +121 −1.5 -143
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 6.5 +107 6.5 -134
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Caesars 6.5 +101 6.5 -124

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Chicago BlackhawksTampa Bay Lightning
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 24.5% 75.5%
Best book price incl. vig 25.0% 78.3%
Kalshi contract price 23.3% 76.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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