Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets

All Dallas Stars predictions · All Columbus Blue Jackets predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Dallas Stars to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Dallas StarsColumbus Blue Jackets
DraftKings -130 +110
Fanatics -130 +110
Novig -133 +108
Caesars -132 +112

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Stars −1.5
priced 33.6% to cover · 3 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 51.1% over · 3 books
Spread by book StarsBlue Jackets
DraftKings −1.5 +185 +1.5 -225
Fanatics −1.5 +180 +1.5 -225
Caesars −1.5 +187 +1.5 -225
Total by bookOverUnder
DraftKings 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Fanatics 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 5.5 -117 5.5 -106

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Dallas StarsColumbus Blue Jackets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.3% 45.7%
Best book price incl. vig 56.5% 47.2%
Kalshi contract price 55.6% 44.4%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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