Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
All Miami Heat predictions · All Golden State Warriors predictions
NBA · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 10:10 PM
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +225 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +240 | -305 |
| DraftKings | +230 | -281 |
| ESPN BET | +230 | -280 |
| Fanatics | +225 | -280 |
| FanDuel | +235 | -290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +225 | -275 |
| Novig | +257 | -264 |
| Caesars | +222 | -278 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Heat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | −7.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -108 | −7.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -114 | −7.5 -106 |
| ESPN BET | +7.5 -115 | −7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | −7.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | −7.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | −7.5 -110 |
| Caesars | +7 -110 | −7 -110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 235.5 -110 | 235.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 235.5 -110 | 235.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | 235.5 -110 | 235.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 235.5 -110 | 235.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 235 -110 | 235 -110 |
| FanDuel | 235.5 -105 | 235.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 235.5 -110 | 235.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 235 -110 | 235 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 28.0% | 72.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 29.2% | 70.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.