New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

MLB · Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · 2:11 PM

The model's call

Milwaukee Brewers to win

Model confidence 56.7%

Books consensus 56.7%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	New York Mets	Milwaukee Brewers
DraftKings	+123	-149
ESPN BET	+120	-140
Fanatics	+125	-150
FanDuel	+120	-142
Hard Rock Bet	+120	-145
Caesars	+122	-145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	New York Mets	Milwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	43.3%	56.7%
Best book price incl. vig	44.4%	58.3%
Kalshi contract price	42.0%	58.0%
Polymarket contract price	41.5%	58.5%
Markets average	41.7%	58.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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