Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars

All San Jose Sharks predictions · All Dallas Stars predictions

NHL · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Dallas Stars to win
Model confidence 72.3%
Books consensus 72.3%
Result Dallas Stars won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Jose SharksDallas Stars
BetMGM +240 -300
BetRivers +260 -315
DraftKings +235 -290
ESPN BET +260 -320
Fanatics +240 -300
FanDuel +245 -310
Hard Rock Bet +240 -350
Novig +270 -277
Caesars +245 -300

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Stars −1.5
priced 52.1% to cover · 8 books
San Jose Sharks covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 45.2% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book SharksStars
BetMGM +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
BetRivers +1.5 -107 −1.5 -117
DraftKings +1.5 -102 −1.5 -118
ESPN BET +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Fanatics +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
FanDuel +1.5 +100 −1.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Caesars +1.5 +100 −1.5 -118
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 6.5 +110 6.5 -137
DraftKings 6.5 +114 6.5 -135
ESPN BET 6.5 +115 6.5 -135
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -145 5.5 +115
Caesars 6 -121 6 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Jose SharksDallas Stars
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 27.7% 72.3%
Best book price incl. vig 27.0% 73.5%
Kalshi contract price 26.6% 73.4%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record