Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies

MLB · Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · 3:11 PM

The model's call

Washington Nationals to win

Model confidence 54.9%

Books consensus 54.9%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Washington Nationals	Colorado Rockies
DraftKings	-136	+113
ESPN BET	-130	+110
Fanatics	-140	+115
FanDuel	-132	+112
Hard Rock Bet	-130	+110
Caesars	-135	+115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Washington Nationals	Colorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	54.9%	45.1%
Best book price incl. vig	56.5%	46.5%
Kalshi contract price	54.5%	44.5%
Polymarket contract price	54.5%	45.5%
Markets average	54.5%	45.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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