Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs

All New Jersey Devils predictions · All Toronto Maple Leafs predictions

NHL · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 7:19 PM · Final: 4-0

The model's call
New Jersey Devils to win
Model confidence 59.3%
Books consensus 59.3%
Result New Jersey Devils won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New Jersey DevilsToronto Maple Leafs
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -157 +132
DraftKings -162 +136
ESPN BET -170 +145
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -162 +134
Hard Rock Bet -160 +125
Novig -150 +147
Caesars -165 +135

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Devils −1.5
priced 38.2% to cover · 8 books
New Jersey Devils covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 47.8% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (4 scored)
Spread by book DevilsMaple Leafs
BetMGM −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
BetRivers −1.5 +155 +1.5 -195
DraftKings −1.5 +150 +1.5 -180
ESPN BET −1.5 +165 +1.5 -200
Fanatics −1.5 +150 +1.5 -185
FanDuel −1.5 +144 +1.5 -178
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +160 +1.5 -210
Caesars −1.5 +135 +1.5 -170
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
BetRivers 6.5 +102 6.5 -129
DraftKings 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 +104 6.5 -128
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6.5 +100 6.5 -122

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New Jersey DevilsToronto Maple Leafs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.3% 40.7%
Best book price incl. vig 60.0% 40.5%
Kalshi contract price 59.5% 40.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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