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Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · 6:41 PM

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians
BetMGM +105 -130
DraftKings +104 -126
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +110 -130
Hard Rock Bet +105 -125
Caesars +105 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.8% 53.2%
Best book price incl. vig 47.6% 55.6%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 52.5%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 45.0% 54.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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