Every game called. Every call graded. In public.

Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs

MLB · Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · 8:06 PM

The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Detroit TigersChicago Cubs
BetMGM -105 -115
DraftKings -105 -115
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel +106 -124
Hard Rock Bet +100 -120
Caesars -105 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Detroit TigersChicago Cubs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.9% 51.1%
Best book price incl. vig 48.5% 53.5%
Kalshi contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Polymarket contract price 47.0% 53.0%
Markets average 47.2% 52.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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