Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres
All Tampa Bay Lightning predictions · All Buffalo Sabres predictions
NHL · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 8-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Tampa Bay Lightning | Buffalo Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -130 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -136 | +114 |
| DraftKings | -130 | +110 |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -130 | +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -130 | +100 |
| Novig | -122 | +120 |
| Caesars | -135 | +110 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Lightning | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +180 | +1.5 -220 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +180 | +1.5 -230 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +190 | +1.5 -230 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +190 | +1.5 -235 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +185 | +1.5 -235 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +176 | +1.5 -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +180 | +1.5 -250 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +180 | +1.5 -225 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 +102 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Tampa Bay Lightning | Buffalo Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 55.0% | 45.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 54.9% | 45.1% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.