Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets

All Tampa Bay Lightning predictions · All Columbus Blue Jackets predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM

The model's call
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Model confidence 51.7%
Books consensus 51.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Tampa Bay LightningColumbus Blue Jackets
BetMGM -118 -102
BetRivers -114 -105
DraftKings -118 -102
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -114 -105
Hard Rock Bet -120 +100
Novig -113 +108
Caesars -115 -103

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Lightning −1.5
priced 32.5% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 47.4% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book LightningBlue Jackets
BetMGM −1.5 +195 +1.5 -235
BetRivers −1.5 +215 +1.5 -278
DraftKings −1.5 +195 +1.5 -238
ESPN BET −1.5 +185 +1.5 -250
Fanatics −1.5 +190 +1.5 -240
FanDuel −1.5 +205 +1.5 -260
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +180 +1.5 -250
Caesars −1.5 +200 +1.5 -245
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -125 6 +105
BetRivers 6.5 +112 6.5 -139
DraftKings 6.5 +102 6.5 -122
ESPN BET 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 +106 6.5 -130
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 +104 6.5 -127

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Tampa Bay LightningColumbus Blue Jackets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.7% 48.3%
Best book price incl. vig 53.1% 48.1%
Kalshi contract price 52.7% 47.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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