Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs

All Minnesota Wild predictions · All Toronto Maple Leafs predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM

The model's call
Minnesota Wild to win
Model confidence 60.4%
Books consensus 60.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Minnesota WildToronto Maple Leafs
BetMGM -175 +145
BetRivers -159 +135
DraftKings -170 +142
ESPN BET -165 +140
Fanatics -175 +145
FanDuel -170 +140
Hard Rock Bet -170 +140
Novig -156 +153
Caesars -170 +144

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Wild −1.5
priced 39.1% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 48.5% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book WildMaple Leafs
BetMGM −1.5 +135 +1.5 -160
BetRivers −1.5 +150 +1.5 -186
DraftKings −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
ESPN BET −1.5 +140 +1.5 -165
Fanatics −1.5 +145 +1.5 -180
FanDuel −1.5 +138 +1.5 -170
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +140 +1.5 -185
Caesars −1.5 +146 +1.5 -173
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -130 6 +105
BetRivers 6.5 -105 6.5 -120
DraftKings 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -104 6.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -103 6.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Minnesota WildToronto Maple Leafs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.4% 39.6%
Best book price incl. vig 60.9% 39.5%
Kalshi contract price 61.5% 38.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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