Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars

All Winnipeg Jets predictions · All Dallas Stars predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 8:00 PM

The model's call
Dallas Stars to win
Model confidence 61.7%
Books consensus 61.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Winnipeg JetsDallas Stars
BetMGM +150 -185
BetRivers +155 -186
DraftKings +154 -185
ESPN BET +145 -170
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +150 -182
Hard Rock Bet +145 -175
Novig +156 -160
Caesars +154 -190

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Stars −1.5
priced 39.6% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 52.2% over · 8 books
Spread by book JetsStars
BetMGM +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
BetRivers +1.5 -175 −1.5 +140
DraftKings +1.5 -170 −1.5 +142
ESPN BET +1.5 -175 −1.5 +145
Fanatics +1.5 -180 −1.5 +145
FanDuel +1.5 -178 −1.5 +142
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -165 −1.5 +130
Caesars +1.5 -170 −1.5 +142
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
BetRivers 5.5 -122 5.5 -103
DraftKings 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
ESPN BET 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
Fanatics 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
FanDuel 5.5 -120 5.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
Caesars 5.5 -124 5.5 +102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Winnipeg JetsDallas Stars
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.3% 61.7%
Best book price incl. vig 39.1% 61.5%
Kalshi contract price 36.9% 63.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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