Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians
MLB · Thursday, July 23, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 3-1
The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 57.1%
Books consensus 57.1%
Result Minnesota Twins won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 42.0% | 58.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.