Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians

MLB · Thursday, July 23, 2026 · 1:11 PM

The model's call

Cleveland Guardians to win

Model confidence 57.1%

Books consensus 57.1%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians
BetMGM	+375	-550
BetRivers	+460	-910
DraftKings	+342	-517
ESPN BET	+340	-600
Fanatics	+390	-600
FanDuel	+390	-590
Hard Rock Bet	+325	-525
Caesars	+320	-450

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	42.9%	57.1%
Best book price incl. vig	17.9%	81.8%
Kalshi contract price	42.5%	57.5%
Polymarket contract price	41.5%	58.5%
Markets average	42.0%	58.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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