Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

MLB · Friday, July 24, 2026 · 6:46 PM

The model's call

Arizona Diamondbacks to win

Model confidence 52.2%

Books consensus 52.2%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Arizona Diamondbacks	Washington Nationals
DraftKings	-119	-101
ESPN BET	-120	+100
Fanatics	-120	+100
FanDuel	-122	+104
Hard Rock Bet	-120	+100
Caesars	-120	+100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Arizona Diamondbacks	Washington Nationals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	52.2%	47.8%
Best book price incl. vig	54.3%	49.0%
Kalshi contract price	51.5%	47.5%
Polymarket contract price	52.5%	47.5%
Markets average	52.0%	47.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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