Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets

MLB · Friday, July 24, 2026 · 7:11 PM

The model's call

Los Angeles Dodgers to win

Model confidence 58.3%

Books consensus 58.3%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Los Angeles Dodgers	New York Mets
BetMGM	-150	+125
DraftKings	-157	+130
Fanatics	-155	+130
FanDuel	-148	+126
Caesars	-155	+130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Los Angeles Dodgers	New York Mets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	58.3%	41.7%
Best book price incl. vig	59.7%	43.5%
Kalshi contract price	58.5%	39.5%
Polymarket contract price	58.5%	41.5%
Markets average	58.5%	40.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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