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Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox

MLB · Friday, July 24, 2026 · 7:41 PM

The model's call
Chicago White Sox to win
Model confidence 57.5%
Books consensus 57.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Houston AstrosChicago White Sox
BetMGM +125 -155
DraftKings +124 -150
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +120 -142
Caesars +130 -155

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Houston AstrosChicago White Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.5% 57.5%
Best book price incl. vig 43.5% 58.7%
Kalshi contract price 43.5% 55.5%
Polymarket contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Markets average 43.5% 56.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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