Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

MLB · Friday, July 24, 2026 · 8:16 PM

The model's call

St. Louis Cardinals to win

Model confidence 59.9%

Books consensus 59.9%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals
BetMGM	+140	-170
DraftKings	+139	-168
Fanatics	+135	-165
FanDuel	+138	-164
Caesars	+140	-165

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	40.1%	59.9%
Best book price incl. vig	41.7%	62.1%
Kalshi contract price	41.5%	58.5%
Polymarket contract price	41.5%	58.5%
Markets average	41.5%	58.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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