Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 4:06 PM

The model's call

Washington Nationals to win

Model confidence 55.3%

Books consensus 55.3%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Arizona Diamondbacks	Washington Nationals
DraftKings	+114	-137
ESPN BET	+115	-135
Fanatics	+115	-140
FanDuel	+116	-134
Hard Rock Bet	+115	-135
Caesars	+115	-135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Arizona Diamondbacks	Washington Nationals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	44.7%	55.3%
Best book price incl. vig	46.3%	57.3%
Kalshi contract price	45.5%	55.5%
Polymarket contract price	45.5%	54.5%
Markets average	45.5%	55.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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