Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 7:16 PM

The model's call

St. Louis Cardinals to win

Model confidence 52.4%

Books consensus 52.4%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals
DraftKings	+102	-123
ESPN BET	+105	-125
Fanatics	+100	-120
FanDuel	+100	-118
Hard Rock Bet	+100	-120
Caesars	+105	-125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	47.6%	52.4%
Best book price incl. vig	48.8%	54.1%
Kalshi contract price	47.5%	52.5%
Polymarket contract price	46.5%	53.5%
Markets average	47.0%	53.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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