Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 0-7
The model's call
Cincinnati Reds to win
Model confidence 50.0%
Books consensus 50.0%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -107 | -107 |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 |
| ESPN BET | -110 | -110 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -110 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 51.0% | 51.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Markets average | 51.0% | 49.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.