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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets

MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 7:16 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 57.7%
Books consensus 57.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Los Angeles DodgersNew York Mets
DraftKings -156 +129
ESPN BET -150 +130
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -148 +126
Hard Rock Bet -150 +125
Caesars -155 +130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersNew York Mets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.7% 42.3%
Best book price incl. vig 59.7% 43.5%
Kalshi contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Polymarket contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Markets average 57.5% 42.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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