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Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 7:16 PM

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 51.0%
Books consensus 51.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Seattle MarinersTexas Rangers
DraftKings -114 -105
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -110 -106
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Caesars -115 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Seattle MarinersTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.0% 49.0%
Best book price incl. vig 52.4% 51.2%
Kalshi contract price 49.5% 50.5%
Polymarket contract price 49.5% 50.5%
Markets average 49.5% 50.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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