Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
MLB · Sunday, July 26, 2026 · 1:36 PM · Final: 7-10
The model's call
Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Model confidence 52.0%
Books consensus 52.0%
Result Washington Nationals won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| BetRivers | -115 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -117 | -103 |
| ESPN BET | -120 | +100 |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -118 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 53.5% | 49.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Markets average | 51.5% | 48.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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