SATURDAY, JULY 25, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
MLB · Sunday, July 26, 2026 · 1:41 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 58.2%
Books consensus 58.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -154 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +130 |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.0% | 43.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 59.0% | 40.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Markets average | 58.7% | 41.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.