Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Monday, July 27, 2026 · 6:42 PM · Final: 2-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | -105 | -109 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -123 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -186 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -193 | −1.5 +159 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -180 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +152 | +1.5 -184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -200 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 -105 | 9.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | 9.5 -104 | 9.5 -115 |
| DraftKings | 9.5 -103 | 9.5 -117 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 -106 | 9.5 -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 -105 | 9.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 9.5 -105 | 9.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 49.5% | 52.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 48.5% | 52.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.